Thursday, 13 December 2012

1pm Wed 6 Feb 2013: ABCs of Forecasting, Prof James Woudhuysen

ABCs of Forecasting
Prof James Woudhuysen, ADH
1pm Wed 6 Feb 2013

It is right to be sceptical about forecasting – but it's wrong to be too sceptical. Among the ABCs:

1 Make a folder of Issues around which to exert thought leadership. Include Asia
2 Collect and suspect more forecasts. Distinguish between real and perceived risk
3 Beware government's fondness for policy-based forecasts
4 What appears new isn't always new; what appears old isn't always old
5 The algebra of numerical forecasts is more important than the arithmetic
6 Identify tendencies and counter-tendencies, and try to synthesise them
7 Some of today's forecasts are complacent; most are full of doom
8 'The best way of predicting the future is to invent it'
9 Write an industry bible (even if it's just for internal use)

How TDC lunchtimes work

TDC Lunchtimes offer an opportunity to mix informally with colleagues from across the university. There is always a pot of tea on the go so why not bring your sandwiches and enjoy lunch with us? This term we meet every Wednesday for an hour from 1pm-2pm. There will be a talk or video or workshop for about 30 minutes, then the rest of the time will be taken up with conversation and networking around the teapot.

The TDC is based in the old surgery behind Fletcher building, No.36 on the Campus Map. Access is by staff card, or ring the doorbell

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